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APA 12-05
Contact: Henry J. Price, Phone: 202-267-3883
Thursday, March 17, 2005
FAA Forecasts Passenger Levels to Top One Billion in the Next Decade
Passenger Volume Back to Pre-2001 Levels
WASHINGTON, DC – The number of people flying in the United States will return
to pre-2001 levels this year, with an average annual growth rate of 3.4 percent
expected over the next 12 years, according to the annual 12-year aviation
forecast report released today by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).
According to FAA Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016, last year 688.5
million flew on U.S. commercial air carriers. By 2015, the number of passengers
is expected to top one billion.
“Deregulation has delivered a dynamic industry where consumers are driving
change. Airline customers have more options, at lower fares, based on more
timely information, than ever before – and our economy is better off as a
result,” said U.S. Secretary of Transportation Norman Y. Mineta.
“The FAA is committed to keep aviation growing,” said FAA Administrator Marion
C. Blakey. “We are redesigning airspace, deploying new software that will help
increase capacity, and putting new procedures in place. These forecast trends
will require that the FAA’s resources be properly targeted during this period of
change. We will be ready.”
Despite economic difficulties facing many of the nation’s large airlines, the
strength of regional air carriers and international travel plays a large role in
keeping demand for aviation services on a continued path for growth, according
to the report.
The regional/commuter airlines are projected to experience the greatest increase
in passenger volume among commercial air carriers, up 15.4 percent from last
year. The FAA defines regionals/commuters as airlines that generally operate
aircraft of 70 seats or less, with a main mission to link passengers to a larger
affiliated, or code-shared, airline. The regional jet fleet is expected to
undergo the largest increase, from 1,630 aircraft in 2004 to 2,960 by 2016.
Despite the increased price of fuel and a slower rate of growth than regional
airlines, large domestic carriers also are forecast to see an increase in
passengers from 502.2 million in 2004 to 700 million by 2016, equal to 2.8
percent each year.
Air travel to and from the United States is also on the rise. International
passenger travel on large commercial and regional air carriers increased from
54.1 million in 2003 to 61.3 million in 2004, an increase of 13.4 percent. Over
the 12-year forecast period, the largest increases in international travel are
slated to occur on Latin American routes at a rate of 5.5 percent more
passengers annually.
In 2004, total landings and takeoffs at combined FAA and contract towers rose
0.5 percent, the first increase in activity since 2000. Of the users in the
aviation community, commuters/air taxis increased their operations by 7 percent
and 0.8 percent respectively. General aviation, or private flying, and military
flights both declined in activity. Commercial aircraft operations are now at
1999 levels, while non-commercial operations are at 1996 levels.
The FAA bases its forecast of sustained aviation growth on economic projections
from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). According to OMB, the nation’s
Gross Domestic Product is projected to increase from $10.7 billion in 2004 to
$15.6 billion in 2016, with a moderate inflation rate of 1.5 percent annually
during that period.
A copy of FAA’s Aerospace Forecasts Fiscal Years 2005-2016 can be found on the
web at http://www.faa.gov.
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